Sunday, August 13, 2017

FLG Doesn't Like Trump, But...

the North Korea situation isn't his fault.    Certainly not when taking the long view and not even taking the very short view.   Furthermore, he thinks many of Trump's critics are making themselves look foolish.

Long view -- The North Korean regime is a horrible regime.   Let's just state that at the out set.   More relevant to the discussion, however, is that it has has pursued nuclear weapons for decades, during the watch of presidents from both parties.  (Although, FLG places probably an unreasonably large and possibly unfair amount of blame specifically on Carter, a brilliant and caring man who somehow seems completely devoid of practical wisdom, and these types of statements only add to FLG's level of blame against him.)   They just happened to acquire or will very shortly acquire the capability to launch an ICBM against mainland US during Trump's tenure.   In the long view, any of Trump's actions, inactions, statements, tweets, etc are vanishingly small to the story thus far.    There is a reasonable argument to be made that the North Koreans are merely rational actors trying to use strategic nuclear weapons to deter the US, but, again, FLG sees Trump's presidency as immaterial to getting to where we are now.

Shorter view --  FLG thinks this is a stronger case that Trump is at fault, but ultimately it's still not compelling.   The North Koreans have been making completely irresponsible and outrageous statements for decades, a trend that has seemingly increased since the current leader took power.  FLG sort of understands the concerns of critics who say the US shouldn't use such rhetoric in return.  Too dangerous, might spook the North Koreans.  The only issue is their fear of the US, which this just exacerbates.     FLG thinks this is fundamentally misguided.   Kim Jung Un who in addition to being a horrible tyrant, which nobody refutes, whose regime consistently makes outrageously irresponsible and bellicose statements as a matter of course.  They've threatened to annihilate the US multiple times.   Yet, it's Trump that is somehow irresponsible all of a sudden?   The world has spent too long ignoring this type of language from North Korea.   Apparently, the regime that has been making outrageous threats for so long is unable to withstand the factual claim that the US will fucking wipe the country from the Earth if they loose a nuke at the US or her allies?    And maybe the madman theory will work in reverse to make the North Koreans or, more likely, the Chinese to get scared shitless, take a step back, look around, and say maybe there's something more we can do here.

Is this dangerous?  Yes, FLG is very scared.   But let's be clear here.   The North Korean regime is deadly serious, murderous, and very likely cares fuck all for what happens after any would be fall precipitated by causes either foreign or domestic.   Late night talk show hosts looks, see a jolly, fat guy, and think he's just goofing.   He's not ,and he definitely needs to know the consequences of any disastrous actions he might be thinking of taking.  

FLG thinks Obama's failure to press for robust missile defense might end up being what history views as his biggest mistake.

1 comment:

Andrew Stevens said...

I doubt Jimmy Carter would score higher than about 125 on an IQ test. He's a smart man; he's certainly not brilliant. There is nothing particularly impressive about, for example, his educational career. (He graduated 60th out of 820 at the U.S. Naval Academy.) He was never particularly insightful or startling as a speaker, not especially knowledgeable for a politician, etc.

 
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