Friday, November 8, 2013

Quote of the day

National Journal: 
America and the rest of the world should be less concerned about a rising China than about a sputtering—or even a crashing—China that could someday turn the world economy's greatest growth center into a global albatross.

FLG thinks the quote overstates it, but as long-time readers know he has been far more skeptical of the inexorable rise of China and even more skeptical of this translating into post-American period where China is more influential worldwide.  Two things lead him to this skepticism.  First, everybody so convinced of the Chinese economy has basically been projecting forward linearly, but long run economic development at the country scale looks more like a logarithmic function, not linear.  FLG believes, based ultimately on a WAG, China is in or approaching the part of the curve that implies less growth.  Second, China is going to grow old before it gets rich and is seeing so many new internal problems that whatever new wealth they generate will be primarily directed toward domestic, not foreign, issues.   Sure, they'll be able to build aircraft carriers and project a bit more power in the region, but worldwide superpower they will not be in FLG's lifetime.

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