Thursday, March 22, 2012

Shitty Reporting

FLG isn't sure why this popped into his head exactly, but a couple of weeks ago he was listening to a news report about the record level of student loan debt. Okay, fine. FLG gets that. He has a bunch of loans. He even gets this part:
Today’s new college grads are so burdened with student loan debt, they’re putting off key life decisions. They’re moving back in with mom and dad, postponing buying that first new car or getting an apartment.

But then he heard this and lost his shit:
Rick Palacios is a senior research analyst at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. He says in 2009, 50 percent of all existing home sales were to first-timers. Now, it’s about 30 percent -- and dropping. Palacios says that has a ripple effect of its own, on what he calls "move-up buyers."

First, this data point proves precisely fuck all about the effects of student debt. The total student loan debt has reached a peak, but it's not like student loan debt has become a drastically bigger problem in the last three years such that the percentage first-time home buyers would drop so precipitously. Second, the most obvious explanation to anybody who thinks about this for, I dunno, half a second is that there was a FUCKING $8,0000 FIRST-TIME HOME BUYER TAX CREDIT in 2009 and there isn't now.

1 comment:

Andrew Stevens said...

According to the National Association of Realtors, 37% of home buyers in 2011 were first-time buyers, which is higher than it was in 2006 and is about the historical average from 2001-2006.

It was the 2009-2010 period which was historically unusual, with a much higher than average percentage of first-time buyers. Connecting this to student loan debt is about the most asinine thing I've ever heard.

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