Security of Ageing

Interesting article in the WaPo today:

Yes, demographics, that relentless maker and breaker of civilizations. From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the Black Death to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the 20th century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in precipitating many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of these trends will once again threaten massive disruption. We're talking about global aging, which is likely to have a profound effect on economic growth, living standards and the shape of the world order.

The security implications are of demographics are often overstated. Not to say they don't matter, but they are second or third order effects. Demographics primarily affect the economic sphere, and then the societal or cultural spheres. The ripples from those then spread to possible security issues. But since security issues are second order, or higher, they are of less amplitude and can possibly be avoided by through smart economic and social policy.

One important exception is the Chinese military threat. To the extent that China grows old before it grows rich it is less of a military threat in the second half of the 21st century. China is already far behind in military capabilities, and the catch up game would eat so many resources that it might be content to remain a major regional, and medium-sized global player.