Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for crude oil prices to just $45 a barrel next year as demand wanes - in a sharp U-turn from its prediction of a spike to $200 made earlier this year.
In May, the investment bank's energy equity team led by Arjun Murti made headlines when it predicted oil could rise to $150 to $200 a barrel within two years. Oil prices peaked at $147 a barrel in July and have fallen sharply since then as a rapidly deepening global economic downturn reduced demand for energy.
I think the second paragraph is supposed to demonstrate credibility, and I'm sure they use complicated models and gigabytes of data to arrive at their conclusions. However, it sure seems to me like they are just taking a ruler and projecting linearly from what is happening right now.
As I wrote before:
Oh, but to get back to earlier point about projections by dilettantish dolts, if you can take a graph of the last fewyears[months] of data and a ruler and arrive at the same conclusion, then they are full of shit and don't listen to a damn thing they are saying.
I changed years to months because that is more relevant to oil price prediction.
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