Thursday, December 18, 2008

Economic columnists are clueless

Both of these are from CNN.

Yesterday:
Another Fed rate cut and concerns about the government's ballooning bailout price tag means that the greenback's recent run against the euro is likely over.


Today:
Dollar rises amid economic jitters


In complete fairness to the author of the first article, he was taking the Fed interest rate cut and applying the principle of interest rate parity. My explanation of how currencies normally fluctuate is here.

The problem with predicting this crap right now is that cutting interest rates doesn't affect the return actual investors are getting right now. Furthermore, long-term concerns are shifting huge amounts of money into dollars for safe keeping. T-bills went positive for goodness' sake. I always go on and on about interest rate parity, but now is not the time to be using it as a predictor of currency fluctuations.

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